Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Dane Sweeny
To win
+$53.00
Total payout
$73.00
Joint prob
53.9%
Combined odds
3.65
Fair odds
1.86
Edge
+96.7%
Expected value: +$19.34 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$19.34 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 53.9% · fair market: 25.4% · edge: +112.5%
Model probabilities Luciano Darderi 46.1% · Dane Sweeny 53.9% Why Dane Sweeny is favoured Luciano Darderi's Elo (1531) is +13 over Dane Sweeny (1518); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 54.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 53.9% vs market 25.4% (edge +112.5%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).