Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Cameron Norrie
To win
+$11.20
Total payout
$31.20
Joint prob
72.7%
Combined odds
1.56
Fair odds
1.38
Edge
+13.4%
Expected value: +$2.67 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.67 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 72.7% · fair market: 62.4% · edge: +16.4%
Model probabilities Cameron Norrie 72.7% · Dalibor Svrcina 27.3% Why Cameron Norrie is favoured Cameron Norrie's Elo (1633) is +129 over Dalibor Svrcina (1504); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 77.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 72.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 72.7% vs market 62.4% (edge +16.4%, suggested Kelly +23.8% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.