Model probabilities Marco Trungelliti 27.2% · Kei Nishikori 72.8% Why Kei Nishikori is favoured Kei Nishikori's Elo (1562) is +106 over Marco Trungelliti (1456); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 25.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 27.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.