Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Yue Yuan
To win
+$132.00
Total payout
$152.00
Joint prob
15.1%
Combined odds
7.60
Fair odds
6.63
Edge
+14.7%
Expected value: +$2.94 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.94 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 15.1% · fair market: 12.5% · edge: +20.3%
Model probabilities Yue Yuan 15.1% · Mirra Andreeva 84.9% Why Mirra Andreeva is favoured Mirra Andreeva's Elo (1813) is +274 over Yue Yuan (1538); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 11.2% home · Platt-calibrated up to 15.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 15.1% vs market 12.5% (edge +20.3%, suggested Kelly +2.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.