Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Aoi Ito
To win
+$25.80
Total payout
$45.80
Joint prob
43.9%
Combined odds
2.29
Fair odds
2.28
Edge
+0.4%
Expected value: +$0.09 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.09 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 43.9% · fair market: 42.0% · edge: +4.4%
Model probabilities Aoi Ito 43.9% · Harriet Dart 56.1% Why Harriet Dart is favoured Aoi Ito's Elo (1481) is +44 over Harriet Dart (1437); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 62.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 43.9% vs market 42.0% (edge +4.4%, suggested Kelly +0.3% of bankroll).