Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Akasha Urhobo
To win
+$50.60
Total payout
$70.60
Joint prob
61.7%
Combined odds
3.53
Fair odds
1.62
Edge
+117.7%
Expected value: +$23.53 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$23.53 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 61.7% · fair market: 27.2% · edge: +126.6%
Model probabilities Hanne Vandewinkel 38.3% · Akasha Urhobo 61.7% Why Akasha Urhobo is favoured Elo essentially level (1482 vs 1480) — winner depends on context. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 50.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 38.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 61.7% vs market 27.2% (edge +126.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.