Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Ekaterina Alexandrova
To win
+$17.60
Total payout
$37.60
Joint prob
66.7%
Combined odds
1.88
Fair odds
1.50
Edge
+25.4%
Expected value: +$5.08 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.08 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 66.7% · fair market: 51.8% · edge: +28.8%
Model probabilities Sara Bejlek 33.3% · Ekaterina Alexandrova 66.7% Why Ekaterina Alexandrova is favoured Ekaterina Alexandrova's Elo (1671) is +84 over Sara Bejlek (1587); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 28.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 33.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 66.7% vs market 51.8% (edge +28.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.