Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Diana Shnaider
To win
+$12.20
Total payout
$32.20
Joint prob
64.9%
Combined odds
1.61
Fair odds
1.54
Edge
+4.5%
Expected value: +$0.91 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.91 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 64.9% · fair market: 60.5% · edge: +7.3%
Model probabilities Leylah Fernandez 35.1% · Diana Shnaider 64.9% Why Diana Shnaider is favoured Diana Shnaider's Elo (1686) is +69 over Leylah Fernandez (1617); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 31.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 35.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 64.9% vs market 60.5% (edge +7.3%, suggested Kelly +7.4% of bankroll).