Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Liudmila Samsonova
To win
+$52.00
Total payout
$72.00
Joint prob
37.9%
Combined odds
3.60
Fair odds
2.64
Edge
+36.5%
Expected value: +$7.30 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.30 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 37.9% · fair market: 26.8% · edge: +41.3%
Model probabilities Coco Gauff 62.1% · Liudmila Samsonova 37.9% Why Coco Gauff is favoured Coco Gauff's Elo (1895) is +281 over Liudmila Samsonova (1614); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 89.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 62.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 37.9% vs market 26.8% (edge +41.3%, suggested Kelly +14.0% of bankroll).