Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Maria Camila Osorio Serrano
To win
+$163.00
Total payout
$183.00
Joint prob
11.6%
Combined odds
9.15
Fair odds
8.65
Edge
+5.8%
Expected value: +$1.16 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.16 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 11.6% · fair market: 10.5% · edge: +10.5%
Model probabilities Coco Gauff 88.4% · Maria Camila Osorio Serrano 11.6% Why Coco Gauff is favoured Coco Gauff's Elo (1914) is +396 over Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (1518); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 93.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 88.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 11.6% vs market 10.5% (edge +10.5%, suggested Kelly +0.7% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.