Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Bu Yunchaokete
To win
+$19.40
Total payout
$39.40
Joint prob
54.5%
Combined odds
1.97
Fair odds
1.84
Edge
+7.3%
Expected value: +$1.46 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.46 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 54.5% · fair market: 45.0% · edge: +21.1%
Model probabilities Bu Yunchaokete 54.5% · Michael Zheng 45.5% Why Bu Yunchaokete is favoured Bu Yunchaokete's Elo (1605) is +75 over Michael Zheng (1530); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 69.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 54.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 54.5% vs market 45.0% (edge +21.1%, suggested Kelly +7.5% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.