Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Zizou Bergs
To win
+$21.80
Total payout
$41.80
Joint prob
64.6%
Combined odds
2.09
Fair odds
1.55
Edge
+35.1%
Expected value: +$7.02 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.02 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 64.6% · fair market: 46.4% · edge: +39.3%
Model probabilities Daniel Merida Aguilar 35.4% · Zizou Bergs 64.6% Why Zizou Bergs is favoured Zizou Bergs's Elo (1598) is +21 over Daniel Merida Aguilar (1577); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 43.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 35.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 64.6% vs market 46.4% (edge +39.3%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.