Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Magdalena Frech
To win
+$20.40
Total payout
$40.40
Joint prob
54.3%
Combined odds
2.02
Fair odds
1.84
Edge
+9.6%
Expected value: +$1.92 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.92 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 54.3% · fair market: 47.8% · edge: +13.5%
Model probabilities Jelena Ostapenko 45.7% · Magdalena Frech 54.3% Why Magdalena Frech is favoured Jelena Ostapenko's Elo (1599) is +60 over Magdalena Frech (1538); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 66.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 45.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 54.3% vs market 47.8% (edge +13.5%, suggested Kelly +9.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.