Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Taylah Preston
To win
+$24.80
Total payout
$44.80
Joint prob
53.9%
Combined odds
2.24
Fair odds
1.85
Edge
+20.8%
Expected value: +$4.16 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.16 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 53.9% · fair market: 40.4% · edge: +33.4%
Model probabilities Daria Snigur 46.1% · Taylah Preston 53.9% Why Taylah Preston is favoured Elo essentially level (1541 vs 1546) — winner depends on context. Calibration Raw model: 48.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 53.9% vs market 40.4% (edge +33.4%, suggested Kelly +16.8% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.