Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Bu Yunchaokete
To win
+$13.80
Total payout
$33.80
Joint prob
73.0%
Combined odds
1.69
Fair odds
1.37
Edge
+23.3%
Expected value: +$4.67 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.67 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 73.0% · fair market: 57.5% · edge: +26.8%
Model probabilities Luca Van Assche 27.0% · Bu Yunchaokete 73.0% Why Bu Yunchaokete is favoured Bu Yunchaokete's Elo (1581) is +129 over Luca Van Assche (1451); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 22.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 27.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 73.0% vs market 57.5% (edge +26.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.