Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jaume Munar
To win
+$13.40
Total payout
$33.40
Joint prob
60.7%
Combined odds
1.67
Fair odds
1.65
Edge
+1.4%
Expected value: +$0.27 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.27 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 60.7% · fair market: 58.3% · edge: +4.2%
Model probabilities Jaume Munar 60.7% · Jaime Faria 39.3% Why Jaume Munar is favoured Jaume Munar's Elo (1609) is +62 over Jaime Faria (1547); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 66.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 60.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 60.7% vs market 58.3% (edge +4.2%, suggested Kelly +2.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.