Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Ekaterina Alexandrova
To win
+$57.20
Total payout
$77.20
Joint prob
30.8%
Combined odds
3.86
Fair odds
3.25
Edge
+18.8%
Expected value: +$3.77 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.77 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 30.8% · fair market: 25.2% · edge: +22.2%
Model probabilities Linda Noskova 69.2% · Ekaterina Alexandrova 30.8% Why Linda Noskova is favoured Linda Noskova's Elo (1790) is +99 over Ekaterina Alexandrova (1690); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 73.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 69.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 30.8% vs market 25.2% (edge +22.2%, suggested Kelly +6.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.