Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Botic van de Zandschulp
To win
+$29.80
Total payout
$49.80
Joint prob
49.2%
Combined odds
2.49
Fair odds
2.03
Edge
+22.5%
Expected value: +$4.50 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.50 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 49.2% · fair market: 38.8% · edge: +26.7%
Model probabilities Botic van de Zandschulp 49.2% · Alex Michelsen 50.8% Why Alex Michelsen is favoured Elo essentially level (1649 vs 1652) — winner depends on context. +EV vs market home: model 49.2% vs market 38.8% (edge +26.7%, suggested Kelly +15.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.