Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Henrique Rocha
To win
+$33.20
Total payout
$53.20
Joint prob
58.6%
Combined odds
2.66
Fair odds
1.71
Edge
+55.8%
Expected value: +$11.17 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$11.17 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 58.6% · fair market: 36.1% · edge: +62.5%
Model probabilities Martin Damm Jr. 41.4% · Henrique Rocha 58.6% +EV vs market away: model 58.6% vs market 36.1% (edge +62.5%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).