Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Zizou Bergs
To win
+$11.20
Total payout
$31.20
Joint prob
74.3%
Combined odds
1.56
Fair odds
1.35
Edge
+16.0%
Expected value: +$3.19 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.19 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 74.3% · fair market: 62.1% · edge: +19.6%
Model probabilities Ignacio Buse 25.7% · Zizou Bergs 74.3% Why Zizou Bergs is favoured Zizou Bergs's Elo (1605) is +143 over Ignacio Buse (1462); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 20.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 25.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 74.3% vs market 62.1% (edge +19.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).