Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Vit Kopriva
To win
+$44.80
Total payout
$64.80
Joint prob
31.4%
Combined odds
3.24
Fair odds
3.19
Edge
+1.6%
Expected value: +$0.32 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.32 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 31.4% · fair market: 30.0% · edge: +4.5%
Model probabilities Vit Kopriva 31.4% · Zizou Bergs 68.6% Why Zizou Bergs is favoured Zizou Bergs's Elo (1593) is +93 over Vit Kopriva (1500); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 27.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 31.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 31.4% vs market 30.0% (edge +4.5%, suggested Kelly +0.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.