Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Himeno Sakatsume
To win
+$30.60
Total payout
$50.60
Joint prob
53.5%
Combined odds
2.53
Fair odds
1.87
Edge
+35.4%
Expected value: +$7.08 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.08 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 53.5% · fair market: 37.8% · edge: +41.4%
Model probabilities Himeno Sakatsume 53.5% · Leolia Jeanjean 46.5% Why Himeno Sakatsume is favoured Himeno Sakatsume's Elo (1518) is +147 over Leolia Jeanjean (1371); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 79.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 53.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 53.5% vs market 37.8% (edge +41.4%, suggested Kelly +23.1% of bankroll).