Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Mattia Bellucci
To win
+$133.80
Total payout
$153.80
Joint prob
30.6%
Combined odds
7.69
Fair odds
3.27
Edge
+135.5%
Expected value: +$27.09 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$27.09 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 30.6% · fair market: 12.6% · edge: +142.8%
Model probabilities Taylor Fritz 69.4% · Mattia Bellucci 30.6% Why Taylor Fritz is favoured Taylor Fritz's Elo (1767) is +275 over Mattia Bellucci (1491); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 88.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 69.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 30.6% vs market 12.6% (edge +142.7%, suggested Kelly +20.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.