Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Nadia Podoroska
To win
+$699.60
Total payout
$719.60
Joint prob
19.6%
Combined odds
35.98
Fair odds
5.10
Edge
+604.8%
Expected value: +$120.97 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$120.97 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 19.6% · fair market: 2.7% · edge: +617.5%
Model probabilities Iga Swiatek 80.4% · Nadia Podoroska 19.6% Why Iga Swiatek is favoured Iga Swiatek's Elo (1914) is +486 over Nadia Podoroska (1427); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 96.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 80.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 19.6% vs market 2.7% (edge +613.7%, suggested Kelly +17.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.