Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tomas Martin Etcheverry
To win
+$50.00
Total payout
$70.00
Joint prob
35.0%
Combined odds
3.50
Fair odds
2.86
Edge
+22.4%
Expected value: +$4.47 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.47 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 35.0% · fair market: 27.7% · edge: +26.3%
Model probabilities Tomas Martin Etcheverry 35.0% · Stefanos Tsitsipas 65.0% Why Stefanos Tsitsipas is favoured Stefanos Tsitsipas's Elo (1632) is +58 over Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1574); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 35.0% vs market 27.7% (edge +26.3%, suggested Kelly +8.9% of bankroll).