Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Katerina Siniakova
To win
+$63.40
Total payout
$83.40
Joint prob
39.6%
Combined odds
4.17
Fair odds
2.53
Edge
+65.1%
Expected value: +$13.02 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$13.02 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 39.6% · fair market: 23.3% · edge: +69.6%
Model probabilities Naomi Osaka 60.4% · Katerina Siniakova 39.6% Why Naomi Osaka is favoured Naomi Osaka's Elo (1750) is +138 over Katerina Siniakova (1612); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 78.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 60.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 39.6% vs market 24.2% (edge +63.6%, suggested Kelly +19.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.