Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Katerina Siniakova
To win
+$53.20
Total payout
$73.20
Joint prob
28.2%
Combined odds
3.66
Fair odds
3.54
Edge
+3.3%
Expected value: +$0.66 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.66 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 28.2% · fair market: 26.5% · edge: +6.5%
Model probabilities Katerina Siniakova 28.2% · Madison Keys 71.8% Why Madison Keys is favoured Madison Keys's Elo (1772) is +150 over Katerina Siniakova (1621); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 20.2% home · Platt-calibrated up to 28.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 28.2% vs market 26.5% (edge +6.5%, suggested Kelly +1.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.