Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Elina Svitolina
To win
+$7.20
Total payout
$27.20
Joint prob
83.6%
Combined odds
1.36
Fair odds
1.20
Edge
+13.6%
Expected value: +$2.73 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.73 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 83.6% · fair market: 71.1% · edge: +17.6%
Model probabilities Tereza Valentova 16.4% · Elina Svitolina 83.6% Why Elina Svitolina is favoured Elina Svitolina's Elo (1852) is +345 over Tereza Valentova (1507); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 7.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 16.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 83.6% vs market 71.1% (edge +17.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.