Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 55.2% · fair market: 55.5% · edge: -0.5%
Model probabilities Quentin Halys 55.2% · Chak Lam Coleman Wong 44.8% Calibration Raw model: 56.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 55.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.