Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Taylor Fritz
To win
+$5.00
Total payout
$25.00
Joint prob
80.6%
Combined odds
1.25
Fair odds
1.24
Edge
+0.7%
Expected value: +$0.15 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.15 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 80.6% · fair market: 77.6% · edge: +3.9%
Model probabilities Benjamin Bonzi 19.4% · Taylor Fritz 80.6% Why Taylor Fritz is favoured Taylor Fritz's Elo (1772) is +221 over Benjamin Bonzi (1551); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 14.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 19.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 80.6% vs market 77.6% (edge +3.9%, suggested Kelly +3.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.