Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Madison Keys
To win
+$3.80
Total payout
$23.80
Joint prob
84.2%
Combined odds
1.19
Fair odds
1.19
Edge
+0.2%
Expected value: +$0.03 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.03 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 84.2% · fair market: 68.3% · edge: +23.3%
Antonia Ruzic secured a hard-fought victory in the first round of the Canadian Open, coming from a set down to win. She has an even 9-9 record on hard courts this season and previously reached the quarter-finals of a WTA 1000 event in Dubai.
Lineup: Antonia Ruzic is expected to play in the second round of the WTA Canadian Open.
Madison Keys received a bye in the first round of the WTA Canadian Open. She recently experienced an early exit at the Washington Open, losing her opening match despite winning the first set. Keys won the Eastbourne Open in June but has since dropped outside the world's top 20.
Lineup: Madison Keys is expected to play in the second round of the WTA Canadian Open after receiving a first-round bye.
“Madison Keys enters Canadian Open after early Washington exit, while Antonia Ruzic advanced through a tough first-round match.”
Model probabilities Antonia Ruzic 15.8% · Madison Keys 84.2% Why Madison Keys is favoured Madison Keys's Elo (1773) is +202 over Antonia Ruzic (1571); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 84.2% vs market 68.3% (edge +23.3%, suggested Kelly +0.9% of bankroll). News context Madison Keys enters Canadian Open after early Washington exit, while Antonia Ruzic advanced through a tough first-round match. Antonia Ruzic: Antonia Ruzic secured a hard-fought victory in the first round of the Canadian Open, coming from a set down to win. She has an even 9-9 record on hard courts this season and previously reached the quarter-finals of a WTA 1000 event in Dubai. Madison Keys: Madison Keys received a bye in the first round of the WTA Canadian Open. She recently experienced an early exit at the Washington Open, losing her opening match despite winning the first set. Keys won the Eastbourne Open in June but has since dropped outside the world's top 20.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.