Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Elise Mertens
To win
+$16.60
Total payout
$36.60
Joint prob
81.5%
Combined odds
1.83
Fair odds
1.23
Edge
+49.1%
Expected value: +$9.83 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$9.83 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 81.5% · fair market: 53.0% · edge: +53.9%
Model probabilities Katie Volynets 18.5% · Elise Mertens 81.5% Why Elise Mertens is favoured Elise Mertens's Elo (1659) is +217 over Katie Volynets (1442); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 14.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 18.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 81.5% vs market 53.0% (edge +53.9%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.