Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Francisco Cerundolo
To win
+$10.40
Total payout
$30.40
Joint prob
70.4%
Combined odds
1.52
Fair odds
1.42
Edge
+7.0%
Expected value: +$1.41 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.41 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 70.4% · fair market: 63.8% · edge: +10.3%
Model probabilities Arthur Rinderknech 29.6% · Francisco Cerundolo 70.4% Why Francisco Cerundolo is favoured Francisco Cerundolo's Elo (1702) is +107 over Arthur Rinderknech (1596); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 25.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 29.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 70.4% vs market 63.8% (edge +10.3%, suggested Kelly +13.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.