Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Donna Vekic
To win
+$21.40
Total payout
$41.40
Joint prob
67.2%
Combined odds
2.07
Fair odds
1.49
Edge
+39.2%
Expected value: +$7.84 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.84 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 67.2% · fair market: 46.6% · edge: +44.2%
Model probabilities Xinyu Wang 32.8% · Donna Vekic 67.2% Why Donna Vekic is favoured Donna Vekic's Elo (1546) is +43 over Xinyu Wang (1502); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 37.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 32.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 67.2% vs market 46.6% (edge +44.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.