Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 44.1% · fair market: 44.6% · edge: -1.2%
Model probabilities Ashlyn Krueger 44.1% · Ann Li 55.9% Why Ann Li is favoured Ann Li's Elo (1577) is +14 over Ashlyn Krueger (1563); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 45.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 44.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.