Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jakub Mensik
To win
+$7.40
Total payout
$27.40
Joint prob
74.0%
Combined odds
1.37
Fair odds
1.35
Edge
+1.3%
Expected value: +$0.26 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.26 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 74.0% · fair market: 71.1% · edge: +4.0%
Model probabilities Botic van de Zandschulp 26.0% · Jakub Mensik 74.0% Why Jakub Mensik is favoured Jakub Mensik's Elo (1731) is +102 over Botic van de Zandschulp (1629); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 74.0% vs market 71.1% (edge +4.0%, suggested Kelly +3.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.