Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Karolina Pliskova
To win
+$21.20
Total payout
$41.20
Joint prob
70.4%
Combined odds
2.06
Fair odds
1.42
Edge
+45.0%
Expected value: +$9.00 on a $20 stake.
No material integrity, morale, or squad-news flags found in the last 14 days.
Expected value: +$9.00 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 70.4% · fair market: 47.2% · edge: +49.2%
Model probabilities Sara Bejlek 29.6% · Karolina Pliskova 70.4% Why Karolina Pliskova is favoured Karolina Pliskova's Elo (1639) is +75 over Sara Bejlek (1564); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 70.4% vs market 47.2% (edge +49.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.