Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Stefanos Tsitsipas
To win
+$11.40
Total payout
$31.40
Joint prob
77.9%
Combined odds
1.57
Fair odds
1.28
Edge
+22.3%
Expected value: +$4.45 on a $20 stake.
Stefanos Tsitsipas recently confirmed the definitive end of his coaching collaboration with his father, Apostolos, in late June 2026, and is now working with Thomas Perrin, a significant change in his support team. Tsitsipas successfully qualified for the main draw of the ATP Canadian Open, winning his final qualifying match on August 2, 2026, after a recent loss in the Mubadala DC Open on July 30, 2026. Martin Damm Jr. also showed good form by winning his first qualifying round match at the Canadian Open on August 1, 2026. The match itself was among several cancelled due to rain on August 3, 2026, but is rescheduled for August 4, 2026. No integrity flags or key absences were reported for either player within the last 14 days.
Stefanos Tsitsipas definitively ended his coaching collaboration with his father, Apostolos, in late June 2026, and is now working with Thomas Perrin, a significant change in his long-standing support team.
Martin Damm Jr. is expected to play, having successfully won his first qualifying round match at the Canadian Open on August 1, 2026.
Stefanos Tsitsipas is expected to play, having successfully qualified for the main draw of the Canadian Open, winning his final qualifying match on August 2, 2026.
Expected value: +$4.45 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 77.9% · fair market: 61.8% · edge: +26.0%
Model probabilities Martin Damm Jr. 22.1% · Stefanos Tsitsipas 77.9% +EV vs market away: model 77.9% vs market 61.8% (edge +26.0%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.