Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jakub Mensik
To win
+$9.00
Total payout
$29.00
Joint prob
79.1%
Combined odds
1.45
Fair odds
1.26
Edge
+14.7%
Expected value: +$2.94 on a $20 stake.
No material integrity, morale, or squad-news flags found in the last 14 days.
Expected value: +$2.94 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 79.1% · fair market: 67.0% · edge: +18.1%
Model probabilities Terence Atmane 20.9% · Jakub Mensik 79.1% Why Jakub Mensik is favoured Jakub Mensik's Elo (1721) is +143 over Terence Atmane (1578); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 79.1% vs market 67.0% (edge +18.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.