Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Novak Djokovic
To win
+$11.20
Total payout
$31.20
Joint prob
72.9%
Combined odds
1.56
Fair odds
1.37
Edge
+13.8%
Expected value: +$2.76 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.76 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 72.9% · fair market: 62.4% · edge: +16.9%
Model probabilities Novak Djokovic 72.9% · Alex de Minaur 27.1% Why Novak Djokovic is favoured Novak Djokovic's Elo (1916) is +131 over Alex de Minaur (1785); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 77.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 72.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 72.9% vs market 62.4% (edge +16.9%, suggested Kelly +24.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.