Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Billy Harris
To win
+$44.40
Total payout
$64.40
Joint prob
32.0%
Combined odds
3.22
Fair odds
3.13
Edge
+2.9%
Expected value: +$0.58 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.58 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 32.0% · fair market: 29.7% · edge: +7.6%
Model probabilities Billy Harris 32.0% · Kyrian Jacquet 68.0% Why Kyrian Jacquet is favoured Kyrian Jacquet's Elo (1490) is +51 over Billy Harris (1439); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 35.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 32.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 32.0% vs market 29.7% (edge +7.6%, suggested Kelly +1.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.