Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 67.1% · fair market: 67.6% · edge: -0.7%
Model probabilities Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 67.1% · Jenson Brooksby 32.9% Why Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is favoured Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's Elo (1647) is +85 over Jenson Brooksby (1563); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 71.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 67.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.