Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Carlos Alcaraz
To win
+$3.80
Total payout
$23.80
Joint prob
87.5%
Combined odds
1.19
Fair odds
1.14
Edge
+4.2%
Expected value: +$0.84 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.84 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 87.5% · fair market: 81.9% · edge: +6.9%
Model probabilities Carlos Alcaraz 87.5% · Alex Michelsen 12.5% Why Carlos Alcaraz is favoured Carlos Alcaraz's Elo (2031) is +376 over Alex Michelsen (1655); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 93.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 87.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 87.5% vs market 81.9% (edge +6.9%, suggested Kelly +22.0% of bankroll).