Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Hubert Hurkacz
To win
+$41.00
Total payout
$61.00
Joint prob
36.4%
Combined odds
3.05
Fair odds
2.75
Edge
+11.0%
Expected value: +$2.20 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.20 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 36.4% · fair market: 31.9% · edge: +14.0%
Model probabilities Ben Shelton 63.6% · Hubert Hurkacz 36.4% Why Ben Shelton is favoured Ben Shelton's Elo (1762) is +183 over Hubert Hurkacz (1579); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 82.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 63.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 36.4% vs market 31.9% (edge +14.0%, suggested Kelly +5.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.