Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 80.1% · fair market: 80.1% · edge: +0.0%
Model probabilities Daniil Medvedev 80.1% · Pablo Carreno Busta 19.9% Why Daniil Medvedev is favoured Daniil Medvedev's Elo (1779) is +247 over Pablo Carreno Busta (1532); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 87.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 80.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.