Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Moez Echargui
To win
+$106.60
Total payout
$126.60
Joint prob
38.2%
Combined odds
6.33
Fair odds
2.62
Edge
+142.0%
Expected value: +$28.39 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$28.39 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 38.2% · fair market: 15.0% · edge: +154.3%
Model probabilities Moez Echargui 38.2% · Michael Zheng 61.8% Calibration Raw model: 50.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 38.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 38.2% vs market 15.0% (edge +154.3%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).