Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alex de Minaur
To win
+$15.80
Total payout
$35.80
Joint prob
73.0%
Combined odds
1.79
Fair odds
1.37
Edge
+30.7%
Expected value: +$6.14 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.14 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 73.0% · fair market: 54.2% · edge: +34.7%
Model probabilities Alex de Minaur 73.0% · Hubert Hurkacz 27.0% Why Alex de Minaur is favoured Alex de Minaur's Elo (1764) is +156 over Hubert Hurkacz (1608); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 80.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 73.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 73.0% vs market 54.2% (edge +34.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.