Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jessica Pegula
To win
+$5.40
Total payout
$25.40
Joint prob
89.2%
Combined odds
1.27
Fair odds
1.12
Edge
+13.2%
Expected value: +$2.65 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.65 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 89.2% · fair market: 76.6% · edge: +16.4%
Model probabilities Jessica Pegula 89.2% · Diana Shnaider 10.8% Why Jessica Pegula is favoured Jessica Pegula's Elo (1920) is +280 over Diana Shnaider (1640); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 89.2% vs market 76.6% (edge +16.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.