Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Daniel Merida Aguilar
To win
+$25.60
Total payout
$45.60
Joint prob
66.4%
Combined odds
2.28
Fair odds
1.51
Edge
+51.3%
Expected value: +$10.26 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$10.26 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 66.4% · fair market: 42.6% · edge: +55.9%
Model probabilities Daniel Merida Aguilar 66.4% · Alexander Blockx 33.6% Why Daniel Merida Aguilar is favoured Daniel Merida Aguilar's Elo (1589) is +80 over Alexander Blockx (1509); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 70.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 66.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 66.4% vs market 42.6% (edge +55.9%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (45% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.