Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Kimberly Birrell
To win
+$17.20
Total payout
$37.20
Joint prob
62.5%
Combined odds
1.86
Fair odds
1.60
Edge
+16.3%
Expected value: +$3.26 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.26 on a $20 stake.
Market: Marathon Bet ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 62.5% · fair market: 51.1% · edge: +22.5%
Model probabilities Kimberly Birrell 62.5% · Viktorija Golubic 37.5% Why Kimberly Birrell is favoured Kimberly Birrell's Elo (1574) is +44 over Viktorija Golubic (1530); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 62.5% vs market 51.1% (edge +22.5%, suggested Kelly +19.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.